Hayden, Idaho 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

049
FXUS66 KOTX 041930
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1230 PM PDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated to critical fire weather expected for Independence
  Day with breezy winds and low RHs Saturday afternoon and early
  evening.

- Gradual warming trend continues into early next week. Moderate
  HeatRisk on Monday and Tuesday with highs in the 90s.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions Tuesday and
  Wednesday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Independence Day will see seasonally warm temperatures in the
80s to near 90s. Dry and breezy conditions will result in
elevated to critical fire weather conditions across the area
through the evening. Temperatures will continue climbing
through Tuesday, resulting in widespread Moderate HeatRisk. The
risk for critical fire weather conditions increases Tuesday and
especially Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Saturday night and Sunday: A dry boundary is moving into the Pacific
Northwest this afternoon.  An abundance of low-level clouds west of
the Cascades combined with warm temperatures and clear skies east of
the Cascades is increasing the cross-Cascade pressure gradient this
afternoon. The latest SEA-EAT gradient measurement was +8.3mb,
and it is expected to increase to around +9-10mb over the next
couple of hours. Critical fire weather across central Washington
and the lee of the Blue Mountains will be the main weather
impact through the evening. Outside of these areas elevated
fire weather condtions are expected. Winds will gradually
decline through the evening across eastern Washington, but will
stay breezy in the lee of the Cascades into the overnight
periods.

Precipitable water values will decrease from 0.50 to 0.70 inches
early this afternoon to 0.20 to 0.40 inches by the early evening
with Poor to Fair relative humidity recoveries across central
Washington. Winds will shift to the north through the Okanogan
Valley overnight with elevated fire weather conditions
continuing into Sunday morning.

Sunday night through Wednesday: An upper-level ridge will amplify
from the Four Corners into the Northern Rockies Sunday into early
next week, while an upper-level low deepens in the Gulf of Alaska
and slides into British Columbia by mid-week. Good model agreement
places the Inland Northwest under the influence of this subtle
ridging and southwesterly flow aloft through Tuesday. Temperatures
will trend much warmer with widespread highs in the 90s on Tuesday.
This will result in widespread Moderate (Orange) HeatRisk, which is
a level of heat that affects those who are sensitive to heat,
especially folks without adequate cooling or hydration.

In addition to the warming temperatures, this period will be
highlighted by fire weather conditions. First, the southwesterly
flow aloft will advect mid-level moisture northward Monday night
through Tuesday night. While the better chances for thunderstorms
remain out of the CWA into eastern Oregon and southern Idaho, models
are showing elevated instability as far north as the Blues and Camas
Prairie Tuesday night. This carries a low confidence with NBM
12-hour probabilities for thunderstorms ranging from 10-25%
across southeast Washington and the southern Panhandle on
Tuesday night.

Second, models have come into good agreement agreement with the Gulf
of Alaska low to move into British Columbia on Tuesday, with a
robust cold front from the parent low and an embedded shortwave
pushing through the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. Ahead of the
front, strengthening cross-Cascade pressure gradients will
result in elevated to critical fire weather conditions across
central Washington late Tuesday afternoon and evening. NBM
guidance is giving central Washington a 40-70% chance of
relative humidity dropping below 20% combined with sustained
winds above 15 mph. Fire weather concerns expand eastward on
Wednesday as the front passes and a surface low deepens over
southern Alberta. Despite some cooling and a little more
moisture associated with the front (compared to Saturday`s
front) on Wednesday, NBM guidance shows a 30-50% chance of
relative humidity dropping below 20% combined with sustained
winds above 15 mph across the lowlands of central and eastern
Washington. Areas across northeast Washington may see some light
rain or sprinkles with the front, but widespread wetting rains
(QPF greater than 0.10 inches) is not expected.

Thursday through Sunday: Uncertainty in the synoptic pattern
has deceased slightly for Thursday and Friday, but increases
again for the weekend. For Thursday, models generally keep the
PNW in a zonal with a slight southwesterly flow pattern with
cooler temperatures continuing. An upper-level ridge begins to
amplifying over the Four Corners on Friday, marking the
beginning of a warming trend. There are large differences in the
strength of this ridge among ensembles into the weekend, with
implications on the exact degree of warming. 67% of ensembles
keep the PNW under a troughing influence on Saturday and 49% of
ensembles until Sunday with cooler conditions lasting through
the weekend. The other 33% on Saturday and 51% on Sunday show
the ridge amplifying into the Pacific Northwest with much warmer
temperatures returning. Currently the NBM 25th-75th percentile
max temperature spread is between 7-10 degrees Fahrenheit for
the weekend, further highlighting this uncertainty. /vmt

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs: VFR conditons are expected. A dry cold front will
move through the area Saturday afternoon, bringing an increase
in southwest to west winds 18-01Z. Sustained winds 15 to 25
knots with gusts 20 to 30 knots will be common across the Inland
Northwest. The strongest winds will be felt through the Cascade
gaps and into the western Columbia Basin, particularly at KEAT.
Winds will gradually weaken through this evening.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence for VFR conditions regionwide.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:

Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,

please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        52  86  52  90  57  93 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  53  84  54  89  59  91 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        50  82  50  86  54  91 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       59  90  58  92  62  98 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       48  85  48  89  53  93 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      52  83  52  88  57  91 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        53  82  52  88  57  89 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     54  89  55  94  58  96 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      61  89  62  93  66  95 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           55  87  57  93  61  96 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Palouse
      -Snake River (Zone 709).
     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Colville
     Reservation (Zone 702)-Foothills of Central Washington
     Cascades (Zone 705)-Methow Valley (Zone 704)-Okanogan
     Valley (Zone 703)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-Western
     Columbia Basin (Zone 707).
ID...None.

&&

$$